What Are the Chances the NBA Will Expand to New Cities Soon?

2025-11-15 15:01

As someone who's been following professional sports expansion for over a decade, I can't help but feel we're standing at the precipice of something significant in the NBA landscape. The recent buzz about potential expansion cities has reached a fever pitch, and honestly, I'm more convinced than ever that we'll see new teams within the next 3-5 years. The league's current 30-team structure has remained unchanged since the 2004 Charlotte Bobcats entry, making this the longest expansion drought in modern NBA history. Commissioner Adam Silver has been dropping increasingly transparent hints about the league's expansion plans, particularly during his annual All-Star weekend addresses.

I remember analyzing the failed Ancajas boxing match situation in Nevada last year, where the athletic commission's rigid opponent approval process ultimately killed what could have been a spectacular undercard event. That scenario reminds me so much of how professional sports leagues sometimes operate - with bureaucratic hurdles that can derail even the most promising opportunities. The Nevada State Athletic Commission turned down several potential opponents for Ancajas, ironically including Casimero, despite what appeared to be perfectly reasonable matchups to most boxing analysts. This kind of regulatory overcaution happens in NBA expansion discussions too, where potential ownership groups might meet all the financial requirements but get tripped up on arena deals or market viability assessments that feel somewhat arbitrary to outside observers.

The financial landscape has shifted dramatically since the last expansion. The league's current media rights deal with ESPN and TNT pays approximately $2.6 billion annually, and with streaming services increasingly entering the sports broadcasting arena, the next deal could easily surpass $75 billion over its duration. That creates enormous pressure to expand the inventory of games and markets. From my conversations with league insiders, the expansion fee for new franchises would likely land between $2.5 to $3 billion per team, which represents pure profit split among existing owners - an incredibly tempting proposition when you consider that would mean an immediate $100-120 million infusion for each current franchise without them having to lift a finger.

Seattle feels like an absolute lock for the first slot, and frankly, it's baffling that the SuperSonics haven't been resurrected already. The city has everything the league wants - a ready-made fanbase with historical attachment, a corporate base that can support premium seating and sponsorship deals, and the spectacular $900 million Climate Pledge Arena that's essentially begging for an NBA tenant. Having visited Seattle multiple times during my research on sports markets, the hunger for basketball there is palpable in a way I've rarely seen in potential expansion cities. Las Vegas represents the other frontrunner, though I have some reservations about the saturation of professional sports in that market. The Golden Knights' stunning success in the NHL proved Vegas could support major league sports, and the Raiders' relocation showed the football market was viable, but adding an NBA team would mean four major franchises in a metropolitan area of just 2.2 million people. That's a tight squeeze, though the league's relationship with the gambling industry has evolved to the point where what was once unthinkable is now practically inevitable.

What many people don't realize is how expansion decisions ripple through other leagues. The Ancajas situation showed how one athletic commission's decision can impact multiple fighters, promoters, and ultimately fans. Similarly, when the NBA expands to new cities, it affects everything from arena availability for concerts and other sports to local media rights markets. I've noticed that expansion talks tend to accelerate when the league is negotiating new television deals, and with the current agreement set to expire after the 2024-25 season, the timing feels right for an announcement.

The international question always comes up in these discussions, and while I'd love to see teams in Mexico City or London, the logistical challenges remain substantial. The travel requirements, currency fluctuations, and political complications create hurdles that make domestic expansion much more likely in the short term. That said, the NBA's global growth strategy continues to emphasize international games and partnerships, so never say never.

My personal take? We'll see an announcement within 24 months, with Seattle and Las Vegas entering the league for the 2027-28 season. The expansion process typically takes about three years from announcement to tip-off, accounting for ownership vetting, arena preparations, and the expansion draft logistics. The league has been methodically laying the groundwork for this moment, testing Seattle's market with preseason games and leveraging the Las Vegas Summer League as both a development tool and a market research opportunity. The pieces are all in place, the financial incentives have never been stronger, and the commissioner has carefully navigated the political landscape among owners to build consensus. Sometimes in sports, the most obvious outcome is the one that takes longest to materialize, but when it does, it feels both surprising and inevitable simultaneously. The NBA's expansion to new cities fits that description perfectly - we all know it's coming, yet the actual announcement will still send shockwaves through the basketball world.